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Unos días atrás nos reunimos con amigos en la bella comarca de Sierra de la Ventana, y en un día de plena radiación solar aprovechamos para subir la Ventana, una caminata con cierta dificultad que sube hasta el cerro que le da nombre a la comarca.

Temprano en el parque formamos un grupo de personas que fuimos asistidos por Damián quien guio la caminata alternando con información histórica, biológica, geológica y para el final en unos de los aleros rocosos naturales formados por la erosión del plegamiento de las rocas reconstruimos la formación de las sierras.

Un activador llego a mi cabeza luego de que Damián explicara que entre otros formadores que les dan cursos a los guías, un biólogo menciona que el ser humano es un niño travieso que juega irresponsablemente. El alero que forma la cueva tiene unos 15 metros de largo y eso le sirvió a Damián para armar una línea de tiempo desde la formación del planeta donde la humanidad ocupa los últimos 2 cm.

Es claro que hoy estemos en el centro de la escena. Pero ¿porque nos creemos tan importantes?, probablemente desde la biología, desde la ecología, pero no podemos sino completar esta visión con otras ciencias como la geología, la astronomía y la paleoclimatología.

Los ciclos de Milankovitch (Milancovic matemático serbio que estudio los movimientos de la orbita terrestre) influyen en la cantidad de radiación solar que llega al planeta repercutiendo principalmente en parámetros físicos, como la sedimentación y el clima global. La teoría de Milán M. sostenía que las glaciaciones debían producirse cuando se daba una combinación entre dos parámetros orbitales, precesión y oblicuidad, que determinaba que a altas latitudes la intensidad de insolación se produzca mas débilmente.

Los CM son variaciones periódicas que sufren 3 parámetros orbitales como consecuencia de la influencia gravitatoria del resto de los astros del sistema solar.

La Excentricidad: puede entenderse como el grado de acercamiento de una figura geométrica circular a la perfección de una circunferencia. Define la redondez de un cuerpo bidimensional, lo que permite distinguir entre 4 figuras geométricas.

Circunferencia (excentricidad 0); elipse (excentricidad < 1), parábola (excentricidad= 1) e hipérbola (excentricidad >1).

Considerando la primera ley de Kepler, todos los planetas orbitan al sol siguiendo orbitas casi elípticas, por lo que la excentricidad estaría en valores que van de 0 a 1. Milancovic calculo que la excentricidad de la tierra varia en ciclos que van de 100.000 a 400.000 años, pasando de excentricidades desde parcialmente circular a ligeramente elípticas. Influyendo en la cantidad de radiación que llega al planeta en un momento dado.

La Oblicuidad: definida como el ángulo que forma el eje de rotación de la tierra con respecto a la perpendicular de la eclíptica (plano en el que orbita la tierra alrededor del sol). Este ángulo es importante a la hora de hablar del clima ya que es el responsable de que existan las estaciones y fija la ubicación de los trópicos para un momento dado.

El valor de oblicuidad varia en ciclos de 41.000 años desde 22,5 ° a 24,5°.

El tercer parámetro es la Precesión: que es el movimiento asociado con el cambio de dirección del eje de rotación que para el caso de la tierra viene dado en ciclos de 21.000 años. Este movimiento determina la fecha en que se producen los solsticios y equinoccios.

Es cierto que la insolación va a determinar otros factores físicos como la humedad, las corrientes, la fuerza de viento, etc.; factores todos ellos implicados en la sedimentación. Pero también hay otras cuestiones intrínsecas a los procesos sedimentarios que hay que tener en cuenta y que podrían influir enormemente en esos ciclos sedimentarios.

Hays, Embrie y Shackleton en 1976 realizaron perforaciones en el Océano Indico, y obtuvieron muestras de testigos de roca muy bien datadas por isotopos de oxigeno que marcaban una ciclicidad climática en un registro de unos miles de años, comprobando de esta manera la teoría de M. Milankovic.

Analizando la ciclicidad glacial-interglaciar de los últimos millones de años, obtenida gracias al estudio de isótopos de oxígeno (cuya proporción isotópica es fuertemente afectada por patrones climatológicos) en sedimentos y testigos de hielo, vemos que esta no ha sido siempre constante.

En los últimos 800.000 años estuvieron dominados por una sucesión de 8 largos periodos glaciares separados por periodos interglaciares débiles, vinculado a la excentricidad orbital en ciclos de 100.000 años.

En el inicio del Cuaternario, 2.6 M de años, estos ciclos estaban combinados por una alternancia de periodos fríos y cálidos con una recurrencia de 41.000 años, coincidiendo con el parámetro orbital de oblicuidad.

Sin embargo, previamente en el Plioceno estos ciclos de 100.000 y 41.000 años se volvían tenues y la mayor influencia presentaba una ciclicidad de 20.000 años asimilables al parámetro orbital de precesión de los equinoccios.

Los cambios durante los últimos 800.000 años implicaban enormes avances y retrocesos de los hielos polares, intensos cambios térmicos y variación del nivel del mar en el rango de 100 metros. Para el resto del periodo cuaternario, ciclicidad vinculada al parámetro orbital de oblicuidad las variaciones del nivel del mar fueron solo de una decena de metros, y previo a ello durante el Plioceno los efectos observados fueron más tenues.

Hoy en día son muchas las preguntas que nos plantea la curva isotópica y que la Teoría Astronómica no es capaz de explicar sin ir acompañados por la cicloestratigrafía.

Entre el Plioceno y el Cuaternario las diferencias en el sistema más significativas se encuentran precisamente en la presencia y la extensión del hielo polar, y por tanto los mecanismos de realimentación diferencial hay que buscarlos en la influencia que tienen los casquetes polares, cuando alcanzan grandes dimensiones, en la inercia del clima a escala global.

La escala de tiempo astronómico combinada con la cicloestratigrafía (herramienta eficaz para calibrar los ciclos astronómicos) permite entender los cambios climáticos del pasado (de origen orbital o no). Grandes cambios climáticos abruptos, como los hipertermales del Mesozoico y Cenozoico, pueden entenderse en un marco temporal preciso, que a su vez hecha luz sobre la velocidad de los procesos. Enlace recomendado: https://gcmd.nasa.gov/index.html

Unas preguntas finales: ¿Es posible que el dióxido de carbono (CO2) esté en parte detrás de esta ciclicidad glacial-interglacial, al menos para la de los últimos 800.000 años? ¿Entonces, es posible que la humanidad se haya convertido en un agente geológico que debe tenerse en cuenta por igual con los procesos naturales en cualquier intento de comprender el funcionamiento de los sistemas de la Tierra?

La Comisión Internacional de Estratigrafía, que formalmente evalúa y acepta la definición de las eras geológicas, encargó al geólogo británico Jan Zalasiewicz recopilar y presentar la evidencia para determinar si existe o no el Antropoceno (una nueva época geológica vinculada a la aparición del hombre). Zalasiewicz formo un grupo interdisciplinario para buscar si efectivamente había concluido el Holoceno y deberíamos incluir la época del Antropoceno, a propuesta de Paul Crutzen, quien acuño este vocablo en el año 2000.

Antes de reconocer formalmente una nueva época geológica la Comisión Internacional de Estratigrafía (CIE) necesitan pruebas muy sólidas. En particular, necesitan convencerse de que las actividades humanas han dejado impreso en los sedimentos y hielos de hoy un rastro claro distinto de los sedimentos y hielos del Holoceno. La labor de Zalasiewicz y su equipo ya ha aportado testimonios para que se abra un Grupo de Trabajo sobre el Antropoceno (GTA) en la CIE. (http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/working-groups/anthropocene/)

Creo que abordar temas complejos necesita de nuestra responsabilidad y obviamente de la ciencia y quienes la componen. Hacer un uso dramático de la humanidad como único responsable de los cambios en la tierra no ayuda a obtener la verdad.

Finalmente tenemos responsabilidades, preguntarnos, informarnos y actuar en consecuencia ayudaría enormemente a la toma de decisiones de política pública.

A menos de una semana de aquella excursión y este disparador de ideas, siendo sábado terminando la tarde en una ciudad mediana, mientras paseo con mi perra al costado de una calle que conecta a los barrios periféricos voy contando autos que con una periodicidad de 1,5 segundos pasan frente a mí, la mayoría de ellos con pocas butacas ocupadas, A lo largo de 400 metros que intercepta mi caminata con esta vía de acceso, el flujo motor no aminora ni se detiene.

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